I’m a fan of Rajesh Jain’s Emergic.org weblog. His perspective on emerging technology and markets specifically on Web 2.0 and Mobility derived from his experiences in India shed light on the bigger picture.
One recent thread of posts caught my attention…Disruption is a 10x Change. Here, Jain quotes Andy Grove…
As a technologist with an interest in business strategy, I have long been intrigued by what happens to industries when a new technology changes the rules of the game, usually by providing an order of magnitude – “10X” – improvement in cost-effectiveness. The history of technology-based industries – communications, computing, and health sciences – is marked by such transformations.
Whether rooted in technology or not, 10X changes wreak havoc, forcing all the players to adapt. Often the only way they can do so is by transforming their own business models in fundamental ways. Most of the firms that dominated the old order usually disappear, replaced by new players operating in new relationships under new rules.
Later in the thread of related posts, Rajesh provides a "personal view" of his guiding principles and building blocks of the future.
"Keeping a perspective of the future world that we want to create is necessary so that we make the right decisions as we work towards building it.
The three key building blocks for my thinking about the future are broadband, mobility and emerging markets. Broadband will enable on-demand, net-native services. Mobility will empower users with computers in their pockets. Much of this future will begin and spread faster in emerging markets because they have very little legacy.
The opportunity lies in putting these building blocks together and creating an ecosystem of focused enterprises which can build out elements of the future. This is what I think of as the Emergic Enterprise Ecosystem. I want to combine this thinking with Bill Burnham’s point about thesis-based investing: “This approach stresses taking the initiative to develop an investment thesis based on focused expertise and then using that investment thesis as the basis for a directed deal acquisition campaign designed to either ferret out those existing start-ups that fit into this investment thesis or to help create new companies that can take advantage of an identified opportunity.”
Net-Native Services (Web 2.0), Mobility and Emerging Markets will be critical to the creation of new Communication Applications and Services.
Taking the two quotes together, we’re left with an interesting challenge: What investments lead to a 10x performance change of Mobile, Web 2.0 communication solutions.